Ebay MarketWatch - Coming Soon!

[DX]

Something I've wanted to do for years! To track ebay listings in public, not just to compile records of soaker values, but also to help buyers identify good deals and bad scams. The first version will be low tech - you'll be able to select the type of gun and will see all the active and ended auctions featuring that model. They will show name, mark, Ebay ID#, condition, price, BIN, whether it's active or ended, and advice on whether to buy or pass, along with additional details if necessary. This will not update in real time, nor upon page refresh, and it will be manually updated so listings that have ended might still show up as active and some listings may be missed entirely. However, future versions may be more automated. I wasted a lot of time looking into that and it is possible, but either costs $$$$ or requires better programming knowledge than I currently possess.

It's a start, though. For now, I am tracking just the mainline CPS guns, though others may be added upon request. To weed out value bias, no guns from before launch date will be added, even if they'd help establish benchmarks. I'm also not sure about what to declare as "the season", which would affect prices. Start of spring to start of fall? Just summer? Education system's "summer break"? April 1 to October 1? I dunno.

Anyway, coming soon to a site that hasn't even been launched yet. I haz work to do.

[marauder]

I have some manual statistics I've been keeping on this if you want them (along with dates). I have been looking forward to this for a LONG time.

It's a start, though. For now, I am tracking just the mainline CPS guns, though others may be added upon request. To weed out value bias, no guns from before launch date will be added, even if they'd help establish benchmarks. I'm also not sure about what to declare as "the season", which would affect prices. Start of spring to start of fall? Just summer? Education system's "summer break"? April 1 to October 1? I dunno.

You should define the season AFTER you find when the prices start jumping (and falling).

[isoaker]

Sounds cool, but I thought some had concerns about "hidden" auctions being discovered, thus pushing up potentially good deals.

[DX]

I will only be vetting guns found using the "Super Soaker CPS" filter. It won't pick up CPS that is misnamed, misspelled, etc. That "PS" gun actually didn't even sell the first time despite all of us knowing about it. It's been relisted.

[DX]

Working on this at the moment and with the tiny pool of listings I have to work with, I'm no longer concerned about time bias. If you have some old Ebay listing data, please send it to me regardless of when it was, as long as it has a date. The parameters I am collecting are: Date the listing ended, the Ebay ID number of the listing, what the BIN price was if applicable, what the auction price was if applicable, whether it sold or did not sell and at what final price, what the mark was if you can tell from pics, the username of the seller, and notes about the listing if applicable. Always ignore shipping for the final price because that would change for everyone. Re-listings count as separate auctions. BIN listings with more than one of the same model don't, but each gun sold counts separately when determining the stats for that model.

Guns currently being tracked:
CPS 1-3-5
CPS 1000
CPS 1200
CPS 1500
CPS 1700
CPS 2000
CPS 2100
CPS 2500
CPS 2700
CPS 3000
CPS 3200
CPS 4100
Monster 01
Monster X
Monster XL
Flash Flood
Splashzooka

[Nitro123PG]

I would consider the season from May 1st to October 1st. Great idea, though. I'm glad you are only using the mainline search so that good deals for "lost listings" aren't ruined.

[DX]

I might have to post deals to avoid price bias, but if I find one, it would not go up until after it has ended, and I obviously won't be saying where it came from. Another thing I just remembered I'll need is condition. Since condition is such a subjective thing, it will be simple categories: NIB, Used, or Broken. If it's been painted, modded, chipped, etc, that would go in notes.

[DX]

Preliminary Values of CPS soakers

57 records, of which 34 are closed and 23 are open

CPS 1-3-5: < $4.99 (3 DNS, 3 open)
CPS 1000: Pending valuation (3 open)
CPS 1200: $29.98 (1 sold, 1 open)
CPS 1500: Pending valuation (0 records)
CPS 1700: $73.00 (1 sold, 3 DNS)
CPS 2000: $95.00 (1 sold, 1 DNS, 1 open, 1 unknown)
CPS 2100: < $59.95 (3 DNS, 2 open)
CPS 2500: $79.99 (1 sold, 2 DNS, 4 open, 1 unknown)
CPS 2700: Pending valuation (0 records)
CPS 3000: $50.00 (1 sold, 1 unknown)
CPS 3200: $81.00 (1 sold, 1 open)
CPS 4100: < $174.99 (1 DNS, 4 open)
Flash Flood: $45.00 (1 sold, 1 open)
Monster 01: $102.50 (1 sold, 3 DNS) *a
Monster X: < $125.90 (2 DNS, 2 open)
Monster XL: < $9.99 (1 DNS) *b
Splashzooka: < $15.00 (4 DNS, 1 open)

*a: The only Monster that sold was NIB
*b: The only Monster XL listed was Broken

News:
A CPS 1-3-5 in used condition failed to sell for just 5 bucks and no others have sold so far.
A CPS 2100 (230738699756) with unusual screw positions did not sell.
With 8 records, the CPS 2500 has been the most listed CPS soaker in 2012 so far.
4 out of the 5 CPS 4100s have been mk1, the good version with the strong trigger.
That "CPS 3010" guy selling MX's is still at it.

Dishonest sellers:
belay05 listed 4 auctions with descriptions copied from iSoaker.com (300664385373, 300667096944, 300664387652, 300667099280)
brijad78 listed 1 auction with descriptions copied from iSoaker.com and WWN (300660730065)

MORE data is always needed! You'll notice that there are few records and most of the values are based on a single successful sale. This project will get more accurate with more data. If you've bought a soaker on Ebay, please send me the data for it! Future reports will include the stats for each individual auction, once enough data exists to make more authoritative judgment calls on what to buy and what to avoid.

[marauder]

Love this project DX. I am going to PM you with what info I have from my inbox.

[DX]

Preliminary Values of CPS soakers

63 records, of which 42 are closed and 21 are open.
*Unknown price outcomes ("seller ended listing early because item is no longer available") have been stripped out.

CPS 1-3-5: < $4.99 (4 DNS, 3 open)
CPS 1000: $39.99 (1 sold, 1 open)
CPS 1200: $29.99 (2 sold, 1 open)
CPS 1500: Pending valuation (0 records)
CPS 1700: $73.00 (1 sold, 3 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 2000: $95.00 (1 sold, 1 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 2100: $49.99 (1 sold, 3 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 2500: $66.00 (3 sold, 3 DNS, 3 open)
CPS 2700: Pending valuation (0 records)
CPS 3000: $50.00 (1 sold)
CPS 3200: $81.00 (1 sold, 1 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 4100: $61.00 (1 sold, 2 DNS, 3 open)
Flash Flood: $45.00 (1 sold, 2 open)
Monster 01: $102.50 (1 sold, 3 DNS) *a
Monster X: < $125.90 (2 DNS, 3 open)
Monster XL: < $99.99 (2 DNS)
Splashzooka: $15.00 (1 sold, 4 DNS)

*a: The only Monster that sold was NIB

News:
No 1-3-5s, Monster Xs, or Monster XLs have sold so far in 2012.
No 1500s or 2700s have been listed so far in 2012.
5 out of the 6 CPS 4100s have been mk1, the good version with the strong trigger. It is recommended to no longer consider this a rare version.

Dishonest sellers:
None

MORE data is always needed! You'll notice that there are few records and most of the values are based on a single successful sale. This project will get more accurate with more data. If you've bought a soaker on Ebay, please send me the data for it! Future reports will include the stats for each individual auction, once enough data exists to make more authoritative judgment calls on what to buy and what to avoid.

[marauder]

Can you track values of air pressure weapons too? They aren't as important, but I think it would be pretty cool to figure out.

[DX]

I do have some SS 50 and XP 150 records, but it was kind of half-assed not sure whether or not to pursue air pressure. In an ideal world, I would track every soaker so we'd know definitively the value of every soaker. Unfortunately, time constraints make that not possible. It already takes enough time to update the CPS sheets (each model has its own sheet). The good thing about air is that some of the rare models rarely come up, so that would not take too much time per se, but they do have to be searched individually by name for the most part. I'll still have to prioritize, starting with what we think would draw the highest prices, then what is most likely to be listed, and then what actually sells. So, I am thinking the SS 50, SS 100, SS 200, SS 300, XP 75, XP 150, XP 250, XXP 275, although the lower number SS and XP are potentially on the table.

Overall, I am not sure what to do about all the models that rarely or never sell. Like, all the new models (even the hydro cannon), almost all BBT guns, Storm, Bonzai, Max-D, and some XP pistols and smaller rifles. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to notice that these things have virtually no value, whether because they are listed too high or never draw bids. However, I don't want to have to track every one of these for months just to prove that. And of course, weird things happen, like that lot with 2 NIB guns including an arctic something going for $30 atm. So, how should these suspected nominal or no value soakers be treated?

[atvan]

You might want to get rid of the comning soon.

The arctic shock actually has better reviews than the IM2 Blaster on Amazon.

[DX]

Preliminary Values of CPS soakers

102 records, of which 70 are closed and 32 are open.
*Unknown price outcomes ("seller ended listing early because item is no longer available") have been stripped out.

CPS 1-3-5: $15.00 (1 sold, 4 DNS)
CPS 1000: $39.99 (1 sold, 2 open)
CPS 1200: $29.99 (2 sold, 2 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 1500: $34.99 (1 sold, 1 open)
CPS 1700: $57.00 (2 sold, 3 DNS)
CPS 2000: $137.50 (2 sold, 3 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 2100: $49.99 (1 sold, 3 DNS, 3 open)
CPS 2500: $58.50 (4 sold, 5 DNS, 8 open)
CPS 2700: < $9.99 (2 DNS, 2 open)
CPS 3000: $71.43 (2 sold)
CPS 3200: $92.00 (3 sold, 1 DNS)
CPS 4100: $40.25 (2 sold, 4 DNS, 2 open)
Flash Flood: $45.00 (1 sold, 3 DNS, 3 open)
Monster 01: $102.50 (1 sold, 4 DNS) *a
Monster X: $12.50 (1 sold, 2 DNS, 3 open)
Monster XL: < $99.99 (3 DNS, 5 open)
Splashzooka: $15.00 (1 sold, 4 DNS)

*a: The only Monster that sold was NIB

News:
Volume of listed CPS guns is rising
No CPS 2700s or Monster XLs have sold so far in 2012.
An MX with nothing wrong with it went for $12.50.
Belay05 stopped ripping iSoaker data.
5 out of 6 CPS 3000/3200s have sold. They are on pace to set new record highs for their models in the peak season.
8 out of the 9 CPS 4100s have been mk1, the good version with the strong trigger. It is recommended to no longer consider this a rare version.
With 17 entries, the CPS 2500 is by far the most listed CPS soaker of 2012 so far.

Dishonest sellers:
None

MORE data is always needed! You'll notice that there are few records and most of the values are based on 1-4 successful sales. This project will get more accurate with more data. If you've bought a soaker on Ebay, please send me the data for it! Future reports will include the stats for each individual auction, once enough data exists to make more authoritative judgment calls on what to buy and what to avoid. The CPS 2500 will likely be the first gun to make the jump to its permanent, more detailed tracking home. I'd say that a model is ready when it has 10 sales to work with.

[soakinader]

Hey DX, I can`t seem to find the thread I posted in before on this, but could you or someone else give me a list of what marks to look for? It isn't always possible (or reasonable) to get the information needed, but aside from the CPS 2000, the marks are unmentioned or maybe unimportant to some buyers. I know there are more desireable versions of the standard CPS (1000,1200,2100), but as far as telling them all apart, I have had no clue. Well except for the fact that the CPS 1200 MK3/4 are silver...
PM me for my current list. I have everything on that list in my internet history, but only recently have I been adding the item number to the entries. I could feasibly backtrack through and get the item number for them all, (along with screw side/clean side) but that seems.... maddening. I would do it if it was important.
*I have kept data on a few items that are NLA (no longer available), and they are marked as such.

[atvan]

Check out SSC's review pages. While some of them aren't the currently accepted marks, it gives you an idea of what to look for.