Tropical Weather Update - quality updates and forecasts since 2003

General questions and discussions on water warfare regarding tactics and strategies.
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Field Marshal Yang
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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Thu Sep 02, 2004 6:11 am

Now that hurricane season is beginning to get into its most active period, it's time for me to begin my tropical weather updates again. Those who were at WWN in fall of 2003 will remember my tropical weather thread in the community forum, when Hurricane Isabel began its move on the U.S. East Coast. Now we have a similar situation, with Hurricane Frances now pounding the Bahamas and on the footsteps of southeast coast. Anybody who watched the news or went to a news website will have heard of Hurricane Charley, which struck the west coast of Florida with 145 mph sustained winds and drove through that state and South Carolina. It eventually ended up on my home island of Long Island as a weak tropical storm. I was in China and I'm still there, so I wasn't able to make any observations. Hurricane Frances also has 145 mph sustained winds but it was twice the width for Charley. Given the much larger size, Frances has the potential to inflict greater damage to life and property and even more caution has to be taken than with Charley. It will make complete landfall on Saturday.

My Forecast: As of now, Hurricane Frances will hit the south coast anywhere from Key West to the south side of North Carolinas. The most probable target for the center of the storm is Central Florida, an area already devastated by Charley. Take into account that the massive width of the storm will give at least tropical storm force winds to all of the Florida penninsula. If the center hits Key West, Frances will pass into the Gulf of Mecxico and inflict most of its damage on Louisiana and Mississippi. If the center hits the Carolinas, a trough will move it up to the mid-atlantic and near where I live.

National Hurricane Center Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0844.shtml?
National Hurricane Center Maps/Charts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0903.shtml?

The next update will be around 6 A.M. Beijing time or early evening East Coast time. After that, I'll be leaving for Shanghai where I will board a plane for the U.S. the next day. if I can get my hands on a computer with internet in Shanghai tomorrow then I will post another update but otherwise my next update will be when I get back Saturday afternoon as Frances makes landfall on the southeast coast. For those members living on or near the coast from Florida to the Carolinas, excercise great caution in the event of a landfall on or near your area.
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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:57 pm

Tropical Weather Update (5:40 A.M. Beijing Time)

Hurricane Frances is in the Bahamas and less than two days away from the Floridian coast. Analysts predict that the costs from this storm could be as high as $35 billion, making Frances the most costly naturla disaster event in U.S. history. This dosen't mean that Frances is the most powerful hurricane to ever hit the U.S., it's simply a matter of massive development along the southeast coast. Frances has weakened slightly to 140 mph sustained winds but it is still a storng category 4 storm and will hit FLorida as a category 4 storm. Also, Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the East Atlantic west of Africa with minimal winds of 30 mph.

My Forecast: Frances' window of movement has shrunk to anywhere from Miami Beach to the coast of Georgia. Wherever is strikes it will be a category 4 storm and it has the possibility of strengthening again due to the warms waters near Florida. After that, Frances will rapidly weaken and become a typical cluster of thunderstorms in the interior of the U.S. As for Tropical Depression 9, it has the potential to become Hurricane Ivan and go along Frances' path of the arly part of its duration as a hurricane.

NHC Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2038.shtml
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Post by DX » Mon Sep 06, 2004 4:08 pm

Frances hit as a Category 2 and was only moving along at 5MPH, and TD9 became Hurricane Ivan. It's interesting to look back on the predictions of an event after it happens. Anyway, Ivan could potentially move across the Carribean Islands near Puerto Rico and in the general direction of Florida. :goofy:
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Post by Soakologist » Tue Sep 07, 2004 4:01 pm

Frances reminded me a lot of Floyd, if anyone remembers that one.

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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Tue Sep 07, 2004 8:48 pm

Finally, people seem to be interested in my weather topic.

Evening September 7 Quick Update:

Like Duxburian said, Hurricane Ivan has the possibility of moving through the Carribean and towards Florida. Current computer models show it following Charley's path, moving over Cuba and hitting Florida's east coast. If Ivan strikes Florida, this will be the 3rd devastating storm to hit the state this year. Currently Ivan has sustained winds of 135 mph, making it a Category 4 storm and forecasts predict it to strengthen even more to near Category 5 strength. The possible landfall zone stretches from Texas to Florida with a small chance for the southeast coast around South Carolina.
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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:41 pm

Evening September 8 Quick Update:

Ivan slammed into the island nation of Grenada earlier today, killing 20 people and destroying the prime minister's house with category 4 winds. Ivan has just strengthed even further to 145 mph max sustained winds and pressure dropped to 938 mb. Further strengthening is expected and Ivan's eye wall may approach category 5 strength in the days to come. One computer model shows it hitting the Bahamas and moving out to sea but the vast majority point it towards the Louisiana-Florida coast, after hitting Jamaica and Cuba. Stayed tuned to your local news/weather channel for the latest updates or visit the following site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Post by Soakologist » Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:11 pm

I don't think that it will get to Category Five. It was 150 with Floyd and it didn't make it, why should we trust Ivan to keep strengthening?

On second thought, you can't underestimate this beast. At the time of this edit (7:43 AM CDT), Ivan's at 160 MPH. I'm still wondering if it can sustain it..




Edited By Soakologist on 1094733843

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Post by DX » Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:50 pm

Well Isabel reached 160MPH and cat. 5 at the height of its glory. Also, Ivan will keep strengthening, the waters over the Carribean must be around 90 degrees by now. 80 degree water stretches up to Virginia, and a hurricane only needs 81 degrees to keep growing. Yeah, Yang has an interesting topic here, weather was my thing for quite a few years, too bad I never checked out the storm updates on WWN, they were probably good.
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Post by Soakologist » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:11 pm

As I so awesomely predicted, Ivan has in fact slowed down and is now a 150 MPH Cat. Four Hurricane.
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Post by NiborDude » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:29 pm

That really doesnt matter. It can still restrengthen, and its still pretty impresive! If this thing hits land now it will devestate. Truely devestate. You saw what these things can do. Charley and francis did lots of damage. This would just be terrible if it hit florida again.

Edit:
Hurricane Ivan is a powerful and deadly Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This decrease in wind on Thursday to 150 mph is more of a fluxuation than a consistent trend.




Edited By NiborDude on 1094776919
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-[color=E9E9E9]Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes! -Leonardo Da Vinci[/color]-

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Post by Soakologist » Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:42 pm

B.S. That's all I have to say.

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Post by DX » Thu Sep 09, 2004 8:16 pm

um, 150MPH is only 5 MPH short of category 5, so this storm is still extremely strong. The pressure is still around 920-930 milibars which is very low. Anyway, despite this being the 9th named storm so far, this season isn't a spike in hurricanes, so don't be surprised at all the tropical activity. The Atlantic has dormant and active periods, and right now it looks like a transition into an active one. Expect this kind of activity for quite a few years, as the many recent years have been pretty unactive.
marauder wrote:You have to explain things in terms that kids will understand, like videogames^ That's how I got Sam to stop using piston pumpers

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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Fri Sep 10, 2004 8:39 pm

Yang's Full Update:

As of 8 PM EST, Ivan has max sustained winds of 150 mph, making it a very strong Caetgory 4 hurricane. It had acheived Category 5 strength earlier Thursday but had weakened to 140 mph through last night and most of today. It has gone through fluctuations and has strengthed again as pressure has dropped to 926 mb. As of now hurricane force winds are beginning to pummel Jamaica as the eye of the storm sets its sights on the capital of Kingston. 33 deaths in the Carribean islands have been blamed on Hurricane Ivan. In other tropical news, Tropical Depression 9 has dissapated in the Eastern Atlantic at a latitude too far north for development. Otherwise, no tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin seems to have the convection necessary to become a depression.

The Forecast: Ivan has the potential to become a Category 5 storm again as it passes over Jamaica. It's wind speed coudl also go the other way, weakening back to where it was earlier today at 140 mph. Over the weekend Ivan will slam into Cuba and by Monday it will be making landfall on Florida after it devastates Key West. By then it will be a Category 4 or strong Category 3 hurricane due to land interaction from Cuba. For those on the east coast of Florida, batten down the hatches.

NHC Public Advisory (8 PM): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2349.shtml?
NHC Maps/Charts (5 PM): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 2038.shtml?
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Post by DX » Fri Sep 10, 2004 9:33 pm

It's interesting to note that Charley hit Florida's west coast, Frances slammed into the east, and now Ivan might roll up the peninsula from the south. Florida hasn't been very luckly lately. I think they were still cleaning up from Charley in some places when Frances hit. :goofy: Wow, 150MPH and 926 milibars. That be one heck of a hurricane. I think that the pressure is lower in Ivan than even Camile ever was, as a historic comparison. Another historic comparison; the eye of Ivan is only 3 miles wider than Andrew's was. Powerful hurricanes usually have compact eyes.
marauder wrote:You have to explain things in terms that kids will understand, like videogames^ That's how I got Sam to stop using piston pumpers

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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Sat Sep 11, 2004 5:13 pm

Quick Update, Full Update after 8 PM:

Hurricane Ivan has rapidly reintensified into a Category 5 storm with 165 mph wind and 914 mb minimum pressure. Earlier today it had fluctuated down to 145 mph but within the last few hours the center of Ivan has become much better organized. As of now, the forecast track shows it slamming into Eastern Cuba as a Category 5 storm and then weakening to a Category 4 or 3 before it makes landfall on the Florida Panhandle. Those regions devastated by Charley and Frances have lucked out as Ivam made a slight turn to the west. Unfortunately, this ends the possibility of Ivan going out to sea after crossing Florida and the Eastern quarter of the nation will experince floods and possinly tornadoes in the days after landfall.
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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:32 pm

The Full Update:

Now that the 8 PM NHC Update is in my full update can proceed. Ivan has slightly intensified over the last few hours, staying around 165 mph max sustained winds but with a minimal central pressure of 912 mb, the 6th lowest pressure for a hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin. Ivan is now west of Jamaica as it continues its west-northwest path across the Carribean. By now 50 deaths in the region have been blamed on the storm as it barrels through island after island.

Forecast: Hurricane Ivan may strength more over the very warm waters south of Cuba but a storm of such magnitude has a hard time holding on to its strength for very long. Eyewall fluctuations will continue to deintensify and reintensify Ivan for the next two days before it slams into Western Cuba west of the capital of Havana. It is still far too early to say exactly where it will make landfall in Florida but current forecasts show it making a beeline for the panhandle and the Georgian interior. Even though shear in the Gulf of Mexico will weaken it, Ivan will probably be a major hurricane when it slams into the coast of Florida as the 3rd hurricane to do so this year.

NHC Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2357.shtml?
NHC Maps/Charts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 2053.shtml?
Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fate of Human Societies, by Jared Diamond

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Post by Field Marshal Yang » Sun Sep 12, 2004 7:21 pm

Tropical Weather Update (8 PM EST):

Ivan the Terrible is battered the Cayman Islands today but luckly to those residents they were spared the brunt of the storm. Even if they did experience a direct hit they would have some safety because most of the houses in that region have walls of concrete. Ivan has weakened to 150 mph max sustained winds today but strangely its minimum pressure has dropped to 915 mb, which should be more than enough the sustain 160 mph winds. Perhaps the quality of convection and core structure haven't kept up with minimum pressure. As of now Ivan is moving to the west-northwest near 10 mph.

Forecast: Current tracks and models show it avoiding the Keys altogether and making landfall on the Florida panhandle or even as far west as the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Ivan is still a few days from landfall so anything could happen to the track, even a sudden shift back towards Key West or a dramatic turn towards Texas, though a high pressure system is keeping that from likely happening. With such a low minimum pressure Hurricane Ivan will probably acheive Category 5 status for the 3rd and probably last time. After it crosses the Western end of Cuba increasing wind shear and cold upwelling in the Gulf of Mexico will cause Ivan to dip back to Category 4 status and probably back to 3 when it slams in the U.S. coast.

NHC Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2345.shtml?
NHC Maps/Charts: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 2058.shtml?

Since I'm becoming the only poster in this thread, I will wait until somebody replies before I update again.
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