Ebay MarketWatch - Week of March 19th, 2012

[DX]

I've decided to post the synopsis as a weekly release. Still not enough sales to put high confidence behind any of the values.

Preliminary Values of CPS soakers

130 records, of which 97 are closed and 33 are open.
*Unknown price outcomes ("seller ended listing early because item is no longer available") have been stripped out.

CPS 1-3-5: Pending Revaluation (4 DNS, 5 Open) // Previous reports of $15 were by error
CPS 1000: $39.99 (1 sold, 6 DNS, 2 open)
CPS 1200: $29.99 (2 sold, 3 DNS)
CPS 1500: $34.99 (1 sold, 1 DNS, 2 open)
CPS 1700: $57.00 (2 sold, 3 DNS, 2 open)
CPS 2000: $125.00 (3 sold, 5 DNS, 1 open)
CPS 2100: $49.99 (1 sold, 4 DNS, 3 open)
CPS 2500: $60.00 (6 sold, 8 DNS, 6 open)
CPS 2700: Pending Valuation (2 DNS, 3 open)
CPS 3000: $71.43 (2 sold, 1 open)
CPS 3200: $92.00 (3 sold, 1 DNS)
CPS 4100: $40.25 (2 sold, 5 DNS, 3 open)
Flash Flood: $31.67 (1 sold, 3 DNS, 1 open)
Monster 01: $102.50 (1 sold, 5 DNS, 2 open) // Only one to sell so far was NIB
Monster X: $12.50 (1 sold, 4 DNS, 2 open)
Monster XL: $99.99 (1 sold, 6 DNS, 2 open)
Splashzooka: $15.00 (1 sold, 4 DNS)

News:
Volume of listed CPS guns continues to rise.
No CPS 1-3-5s or CPS 2700s have sold so far in 2012, although both currently have open auctions with bids on them.
937john1010 has 5 failed auctions for a $49.95 CPS 1000 and is on his 6th attempt. Maybe nobody wants to pay that much?
The CPS 2500 with a fake CPS 1500 (180839749247) sold, despite reports to Ebay.
identitiesrevealed put up a CPS 2500 mislabeled as a CPS 3000 and Monster (190655424165). Obviously an attempt to get more exposure and does not help describe the item. He knows it's a 2500...
9 out of the 10 CPS 4100s have been mk1, the good version with the strong trigger.
With 20 entries, the CPS 2500 is by far the most listed CPS soaker of 2012 so far.

Dishonest sellers/listings:
identitiesrevealed (190655424165) //unethical, but not disallowed

MORE data is always needed! You'll notice that there are few records and most of the values are based on 1-3 successful sales. This project will get more accurate with more data. If you've bought a soaker on Ebay, please send me the data for it! Future reports will include the stats for each individual auction, once enough data exists to make more authoritative judgment calls on what to buy and what to avoid. The CPS 2500 will likely be the first gun to make the jump to its permanent, more detailed tracking home. I'd say that a model is ready when it has 10 sales to work with.

[soakinader]

I have a list of every super soaker sold on ebay since the end of may, including their condition and sold price. If you are interested, please let me know. I add to my database every couple of days.

[DX]

That would be awesome. I've been working 10 hour days sometimes and haven't had time to keep up with Ebay. I need to find a way to automate the data, going through each auction manually is a such a pain, especially when the thing doesn't sell and gets relisted 2, 5, even 10 times. What I'm mainly interested in is the date the auction ended, the auction's ID number, the model, version/mark if you can determine it, condition, starting price, BIN, final price, seller, whether it was alone or part of a lot, and notes like if the seller stole iSoaker data or had a fake soaker. If it's still an ongoing auction, I mark the entry as Open rather than putting in an end date. Time constraints will probably snip some info out of my current parameters though, like just having the final price instead of tracking starting and BIN.

[soakinader]

What I'm mainly interested in is the date the auction ended, the auction's ID number, the model, version/mark if you can determine it, condition, starting price, BIN, final price, seller, whether it was alone or part of a lot, and notes like if the seller stole iSoaker data or had a fake soaker.

Holy moly. I can see having the version/mark, condition, contents, and the sold price. But why would you want the item number? After 90 days, you can no longer look at ended auctions I thought? And while I curse the sellers that blatantly copy-paste off of Isoaker, or are just plain *************, I don't see what we can do about it.

PS: You get my PM, DX?

[atvan]

In the past, IIRC iSoaker has had a little e-mail chat with some people who ripped off his reviews.

BIN (what exactly does that stand for anyway) is sort of a subset of condition, starting price shows a relationship between price and bidding wars, ID number is so we don't accidentally record one twice, seller to see if a seller has a reputation for good deals, and lots because lots tend to go cheaper than if the items were sold individually.